Ukraine's Steel Export Surge in 2024: An Overview
Ukraine’s steel industry achieved a notable export performance in 2024, with shipments of semi-finished products rising by 56.7% compared to 2023. The country's exports in this category grew from 1.2 million metric tons in 2023 to 1.89 million metric tons in 2024, a significant rebound after a decline from 6.78 million metric tons in 2021 and 1.9 million metric tons in 2022. This increase reflects a broader trend of shifting market dynamics, with Ukrainian companies increasingly focusing on distant markets to boost exports.
The rise in exports was driven by the return of sea exports to regions such as Egypt, which contributed significantly to the year-on-year growth. Bulgaria, however, remained the largest consumer of Ukrainian semi-finished products, accounting for 31.5% of total exports.
Quarterly Breakdown of Export Activity
The year 2024 saw fluctuations in export levels across the quarters, driven by changes in market conditions, logistical challenges, and competitiveness issues. Here’s how the exports performed throughout the year:
• Q1: 451.15 thousand metric tons, reflecting a 61.7% quarter-on-quarter increase and a remarkable 132% year-on-year growth.
• Q2: 436.86 thousand metric tons, marking a slight decline of 3.2% from Q1 but still a 23.1% increase from Q2 2023.
• Q3: 641.9 thousand metric tons, a significant surge of 46.9% from the previous quarter and a 71.2% year-on-year increase.
• Q4: 356.17 thousand metric tons, a sharp drop of 44.5% compared to Q3, though still a 27.7% increase compared to the same period in 2023.
The third quarter stood out as the peak for Ukrainian semi-finished steel exports in 2024, contributing to much of the annual growth. Exports were generally stable in the first half of the year, but the final quarter experienced a significant drop in shipments, partly due to rising costs of electricity and logistics, along with a slowdown in the global steel market.
Key Export Destinations: A Shift in Trade Patterns
The shift in export markets in 2024 demonstrated Ukraine’s growing diversification strategy. Among the notable export destinations were:
• Bulgaria: As the top consumer of Ukrainian semi-finished products, Bulgaria saw a 30% increase in imports, amounting to 595.02 thousand metric tons.
• Egypt: Exports to Egypt saw an extraordinary rise of 1233%, reaching 356.17 thousand metric tons. This surge was driven by the resumption of sea shipments to distant markets that were previously disrupted.
• Turkey: Exports to Turkey remained relatively stable, with 215.76 thousand metric tons shipped, reflecting consistent demand from the Turkish market.
The increased focus on distant markets like Egypt, along with stable trade with Bulgaria and Turkey, points to Ukraine's strategic pivot to diversify its customer base, compensating for challenges in traditional markets.
Monthly and Annual Export Figures
On a monthly basis, Ukraine's average exports amounted to 157.2 thousand metric tons, which marked an increase from 100.3 thousand metric tons in 2023 and 158 thousand metric tons in 2022. This steady level of exports underscores the importance of the steel industry to Ukraine’s economy, even amid global market fluctuations.
In December 2024, Ukraine’s semi-finished steel exports reached 122.25 thousand metric tons. This represented a 23.8% year-on-year increase and a significant 36.1% month-on-month rise, highlighting strong demand in the final month of the year.
Challenges Facing Ukraine’s Steel Industry
Despite the positive export figures, Ukraine's steel industry faced several hurdles in 2024. Rising electricity tariffs and logistical challenges, particularly in the wake of geopolitical tensions, contributed to the weakening of the country’s competitiveness on the global stage. Additionally, the global steel market remained weak, affecting demand and pricing, which in turn impacted the profitability of steel producers.
However, the resilience shown in 2024, particularly the ability to tap into new markets like Egypt, offers a hopeful outlook for the future of Ukraine’s steel exports.
Looking Forward: The Future of Ukrainian Steel Exports
The continued diversification of export markets will be essential for Ukraine’s steel industry as it navigates the challenges of the global steel market. To sustain the momentum seen in 2024, Ukraine will need to address its rising energy and logistics costs while capitalising on new trade agreements and maintaining strong relations with key consumers like Bulgaria and Turkey. The ability to adapt to changing market dynamics will determine whether Ukraine can continue to strengthen its position as a leading exporter of semi-finished steel products.
In conclusion, while 2024 showed promising export growth, the path ahead requires innovation, cost management, and strategic market positioning to ensure Ukraine’s continued success in the global steel market.
