China’s Steel Exports in 2024: Record-Breaking Surge Amidst Global Uncertainty
In 2024, China's finished steel exports experienced a significant surge, rising by 22.7% year-on-year, reaching 110.716 million metric tons. This marked a nine-year high, with exports surpassing analysts' expectations of 107-109 million metric tons, fueled by strong sales in October and November and robust shipments in December. The 2024 figure even surpassed the 2015 peak of 112 million metric tons, making it one of the strongest years for China's steel exports in recent history.
December 2024: A Strong Finish to the Year
In December 2024, China's steel exports were particularly strong, totaling 9.727 million metric tons, which represented a 4.8% month-on-month increase and an impressive 25.8% year-on-year rise. This final month of the year saw elevated steel shipments, driven by high demand from international markets, particularly in key regions where Chinese steel is a competitive option for infrastructure and manufacturing projects.
Despite the strong December performance, experts caution that the future trajectory of China's steel exports may face significant headwinds, especially with increased investigations and scrutiny from global markets. These investigations, particularly into anti-dumping measures and other trade barriers, could affect China's steel export volumes in 2025, although it is still expected that exports will remain relatively high, at an estimated 90-95 million mt.
2024 Finished Steel Imports: A Decline in Global Demand
While China's finished steel exports saw remarkable growth, the country's finished steel imports showed a contrasting trend. In December 2024, China’s imports totaled 621,000 metric tons, up 32.1% month-on-month, but this was a 5.9% year-on-year decline. Over the entire year of 2024, China imported a total of 6.815 million metric tons of finished steel, reflecting a 10.9% year-on-year decrease in imports. This decline highlights reduced demand for foreign steel products within China, potentially due to self-sufficiency in domestic steel production, ongoing trade tensions, and a decrease in construction and manufacturing demand.
Global Outlook: Challenges Ahead for Chinese Steel Exports
Looking ahead to 2025, while China's steel exports are projected to remain strong, several challenges could hinder their growth. Trade investigations by foreign governments are expected to intensify, potentially affecting the volume and profitability of Chinese steel exports. Additionally, the global economic landscape, including reduced demand in major markets like Europe and the U.S., could create barriers for Chinese steel suppliers.
Despite these challenges, market experts predict that China’s steel export levels will remain competitive, likely staying within the range of 90-95 million metric tons, as international demand for cost-effective steel remains robust in certain developing regions, particularly in Africa and parts of Asia.
A Shift in China’s Steel Import Trends
On the other hand, China's decline in finished steel imports also reflects the shifting dynamics in the global steel industry. The decline in imports by 10.9% in 2024 could indicate China's growing reliance on its domestic steel production capacity. This could be a direct result of the country’s emphasis on producing higher-quality, low-carbon steel, which meets the rising global demand for sustainable construction materials and green infrastructure.
