Canada’s Anti-Dumping Duty on Bulgarian Rebar and Its Ripple Effects on Ukraine's Steel Exports
In December 2024, the Canada Border Services Agency imposed a final anti-dumping duty of 15.9% on rebar imports from Bulgaria, specifically targeting Promet Steel. This decision, however, is expected to have significant indirect consequences on Ukrainian steel exports, as Bulgaria produces its rebar from Ukrainian square billets. This new duty is expected to reduce Ukraine's annual steel export volume by between 60,000 to 80,000 metric tons in 2023-2024, as outlined in a report by GMK Center, titled "Trade Restrictions as the Key Challenge for Steel Industry in 2025".
The Interconnectedness of Ukrainian Billets and Bulgarian Rebar
While the anti-dumping duties directly target Bulgarian rebar, the indirect impact on Ukraine's billet exports is critical. The rebar produced in Bulgaria uses Ukrainian square billets as a raw material, and the Canadian decision to impose duties on Bulgarian rebar could indirectly affect the demand for billets from Ukraine.
This situation contrasts with a previous Canadian policy where steel products from Ukraine were temporarily excluded from customs duties. The new duties on Bulgarian rebar complicate the relationship, as Ukraine's steel exports are now impacted by decisions concerning steel products manufactured in other countries.
Trade Restriction Measures and Their Impact on Ukraine’s Steel Industry
The introduction of anti-dumping duties against Bulgarian rebar in Canada is part of a broader pattern of trade restrictions faced by Ukrainian steel products. Currently, 28 trade restriction measures are enforced against steel products from Ukraine in 13 countries and economic blocs. A significant portion of these measures, about one in four, have been in place for more than 20 years.
Despite these challenges, Ukraine's steelmaking industry is undergoing significant changes. The country’s nominal steelmaking capacity has drastically declined from 42 million metric tons in 2013 to 16.2 million metric tons in 2024. Of this capacity, only about 8.0 million metric tons remains active, with the rest either idled or underutilized.
Declining Steel Exports from Ukraine
The drop in steel production capacity has directly impacted Ukraine's steel exports, which have fallen from 24.7 million metric tons in 2013 to a projected 4.7 million metric tons in 2024. This steep decline reflects the broader challenges within the global steel market, compounded by ongoing trade restrictions and shifts in international demand for steel products.
U.S. Tariff Policies and Their Global Impact
The situation in Canada is part of a larger trend of growing protectionist measures affecting the steel industry. For instance, the United States, under former President Donald Trump, made moves to impose large-scale tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper imports. These actions were part of a broader policy aimed at protecting domestic industries and reducing reliance on foreign steel. The U.S. has also imposed tariffs on other goods like computer chips, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, affecting trade dynamics globally.
In the case of steel and billets, some countries, including the U.S., use origin criteria to determine whether certain steel products, such as rebar produced in Europe using Ukrainian billets, are exempt from tariff-rate quotas. This mechanism has not yet been applied in the case of the Canadian anti-dumping duty on Bulgarian rebar, leaving Ukrainian steel exporters at a disadvantage.
What’s Next for Ukrainian Steel?
As trade restrictions continue to pose significant challenges to the Ukrainian steel industry, there is an urgent need for new strategies to maintain export markets. Ukraine may need to seek alternative markets for its steel billets and rebar products, as well as lobby for policy changes that recognize the interconnected nature of steel production across borders.
While Canada’s anti-dumping duties on Bulgarian rebar will have a notable impact on Ukrainian exports, this is just one example of the many hurdles faced by the global steel industry in 2025. As steel producers and exporters navigate these challenges, their ability to adapt to an ever-changing trade environment will determine their competitiveness in the global market.
