In-depth Look at EU’s Provisional Anti-Dumping Measures on HRC Imports
On March 14, 2025, the European Commission revealed its findings and provisional duties from an anti-dumping investigation into hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports into the EU. The investigation, launched to address concerns about unfair trading practices, has major implications for the global steel market.
The provisional anti-dumping duties will apply to imports from Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam, with India’s exports being cleared of any dumping allegations and thus not subject to duties. The final decision regarding these measures will be issued on October 7, 2025, giving EU authorities time to thoroughly assess the situation before confirming the official tariff structure.
The EU has a vital interest in regulating the steel sector, with HRC being one of the most essential materials used in the manufacturing of automobiles, construction, and heavy machinery. Consequently, these duties are seen as crucial in preserving the health of the EU’s domestic steel industry.
Provisional Duty Breakdown:
The provisional anti-dumping duties differ significantly across countries, with the highest duties being levied on Japan. Here’s an in-depth look at the provisional duty rates by country and producer:
Japan:
• Nippon Steel – 33%
• Tokyo Steel – 6.9%
• Daido Steel – 32%
• JFE Steel – 32%
• All other Japanese producers – 33%
Japanese steelmakers face some of the steepest duties, with Nippon Steel receiving a 33% duty. This high duty rate applies to most other Japanese producers as well, such as Daido Steel and JFE Steel, who are subject to 32% tariffs. However, Tokyo Steel has been granted a lower duty rate of 6.9%. The 33% duties on other Japanese producers may result in reduced competitiveness for their products in the EU market.
Egypt:
• Ezz Steel – 15.6%
• All other Egyptian producers – 15.6%
The 15.6% duty applies to all Egyptian producers, including Ezz Steel, the largest exporter of hot-rolled coils from Egypt. The imposition of these duties could have a significant impact on Egypt's ability to export HRC to the EU market, potentially leading to reduced exports and a shift in market dynamics.
Vietnam:
• Formosa Ha Tinh – 12.1%
• All other Vietnamese producers – 12.1%
Vietnam faces a 12.1% provisional duty, which was lower than many market observers had expected. Given the size of the Vietnamese steel sector, especially with its production of flat steel, this relatively lower duty will allow Vietnamese exporters to continue supplying to the EU, although their market share may be affected by the safeguard measures already limiting total import volumes. The Vietnamese market for HRC will still be able to function, albeit at potentially reduced volumes due to these import restrictions.
India:
• All Indian mills – 0% duty
India, which has been a significant player in the EU HRC market, faces no duties at all. No evidence of dumping was found in the case of Indian HRC exports, which means that Indian steel producers will continue to have unhindered access to the EU market. This is a noteworthy exemption, as India had previously been impacted by safeguard measures that saw a 23% drop in imports, with Indian exports to the EU falling to 225,000 metric tons per quarter.
Market Impacts of Provisional Duties
The imposition of these provisional anti-dumping duties is expected to have a substantial impact on the EU steel market, particularly concerning import volumes, pricing dynamics, and long-term trade relations.
Impact on Japanese HRC Exports:
The 33% duty imposed on Nippon Steel and other Japanese producers could significantly affect their market share in the EU. Japanese steelmakers have been major suppliers to the EU for many years, and the higher tariffs are likely to diminish their competitive edge. However, Tokyo Steel, which faces a lower duty rate of 6.9%, may be able to maintain more favorable export conditions compared to other Japanese mills.
Impact on Egyptian HRC Exports:
For Egypt, the 15.6% duty is expected to substantially reduce the competitiveness of Egyptian steel in the EU market. While Ezz Steel remains a prominent supplier of HRC, the additional duties may encourage EU buyers to seek alternatives from India or Vietnam. This could lead to a decrease in Egyptian steel exports to the EU.
Impact on Vietnamese HRC Exports:
Vietnam faces a 12.1% duty, which is lower than expected, suggesting that Vietnamese exporters will face fewer barriers compared to other countries like Egypt and Japan. This should allow Vietnam to retain a significant share of the EU HRC market, though the safeguard measures in place, which restrict total imports to around 111,000 metric tons per quarter, will still limit growth.
Impact on Indian HRC Exports:
India will likely continue to be one of the EU's largest suppliers of HRC with no duties being applied. Given the current restrictions on imports from other countries, Indian producers are well-positioned to benefit from this situation, as their HRC exports will face minimal barriers in the EU market.
HRC Market Pricing Dynamics in the EU
The provisional duties will influence HRC pricing in Europe. While the overall EU HRC market has faced some volatility due to safeguard measures and trade tensions, the provisional anti-dumping duties are not expected to drastically raise prices. However, there are several factors that will influence pricing over the coming months:
• Supply Constraints: With Vietnam and Egypt facing additional duties, EU buyers may be forced to look for alternatives, potentially driving prices for non-dumping suppliers like India higher.
• Price Stabilization: Since the safeguard measures have already reduced the overall import volumes into the EU, prices are more likely to stabilize rather than increase dramatically.
• Impact on Smaller Producers: Smaller steel mills in Japan and Egypt could see their exports decline due to higher duties, pushing prices upward for larger suppliers who can afford to absorb or mitigate tariff impacts.
Looking Ahead: Potential for Future Adjustments
As the EU’s anti-dumping investigation progresses and the final ruling is issued by October 2025, there is potential for adjustments in the provisional duties. Market conditions, the EU’s safeguard review, and the overall trade landscape will influence the final decision. Additionally, steel buyers and producers will likely push for further clarifications and adjustments to ensure the market remains stable.
Key Takeaways:
• Provisional duties range from 6.9% to 33% for HRC imports from Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam, while India faces no duties.
• Nippon Steel faces the highest 33% duty from Japan, while Tokyo Steel has a 6.9% duty.
• Egyptian exporters face a 15.6% duty, which could reduce their competitiveness in the EU market.
• Vietnamese exporters will be impacted by a 12.1% duty, but the lower tariff rate allows them to continue competing.
• Indian exports remain unaffected by anti-dumping duties, benefiting from unhindered access to the EU market.
• EU HRC prices are expected to stabilize, with mild upward pressure from supply constraints.
• The final decision on these provisional duties will be made by October 7, 2025.
• Market share for affected suppliers may decrease, while Indian producers stand to gain from unfavorable conditions faced by other countries.
