China’s Crude Steel Output Falls 1.5% in January-February 2025
In the first two months of 2025, China’s crude steel production fell by 1.5% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 166.3 million metric tons. This decline was driven by several factors, including a slowdown in demand and strategic adjustments by local mills. The National Bureau of Statistics released these official figures on March 16, 2025, signaling a slight dip in the world’s largest steel producer’s output.
Despite the decrease in output, China’s steel production remains robust. The daily output in January and February averaged 2.82 million tons per day, which is a marginal increase from 2.8 million tons per day in the same period last year. The figures also showed an improvement from 2.45 million tons per day in December 2024.
China traditionally combines steel import data for January and February to adjust for the Lunar New Year’s effects, which disrupt production and consumption. This smoothing of data helps mitigate seasonal variations and offers a clearer view of the year’s performance.
According to the World Steel Association’s report, China’s output was down by 5.6% in January 2025, totaling 81.9 million tons. However, analysts predict a rebound in March as steel mills ramp up production due to favorable profit margins. Despite the promising signs of recovery, some mills are focused on securing more orders, especially with the global trade outlook clouded by geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts.
Challenges to Steel Prices
As analysts point out, a key concern is the impact of ongoing global trade wars, which could influence both steel demand and prices in the coming months. These uncertainties have put additional pressure on steel mills that are striving to maintain profitability amidst fluctuating global demand.
Key Takeaways:
• China's crude steel production for January-February 2025 fell 1.5% year-on-year.
• 166.3 million metric tons of steel were produced during the period.
• Average daily output in the first two months was approximately 2.82 million tons.
• Lunar New Year adjustments are factored into the production data.
• China’s output in January dropped by 5.6%, according to the World Steel Association.
• Analysts expect higher output in March as steel mills seek stronger margins.
• The global trade conflict poses challenges to steel demand and pricing in 2025.
This article summarizes the early 2025 trends in China's steel industry, emphasizing the nation’s ongoing role as the dominant steel producer globally. Despite a decline in output, the overall production levels remain high, and the sector’s recovery seems likely as trade dynamics evolve.
