In November 2024, India’s steel exports stabilized in the 0.4 million metric ton (mt) range, reflecting a notable year-on-year growth of 71%. This rise is attributed to the low base effect from the previous year, which saw exports of only 0.23 mt, as well as an increase in orders from certain European markets. This marks the second consecutive month of export growth, a positive sign for the country’s steel sector. However, despite the annual improvement, exports remained subdued on a sequential basis, dipping by about 10% compared to October 2024, which saw a peak of 0.45 mt in exports.
The stability in exports has been driven by a combination of factors, including selective demand from European markets. However, Indian steel exporters have been facing growing competition from Chinese producers, who offer steel at lower prices, which has put pressure on Indian export volumes. In addition, the global market for hot-rolled coils, a key product, remains sluggish, further dampening export prospects. European markets, in particular, have taken a cautious approach, awaiting clarity on global trade policies, including potential trade restrictions.
On a more positive note, India's steel imports saw a significant decline in November 2024, dropping by 32% year-on-year to 0.75 mt. This marks the second consecutive month of reduced imports. On a sequential basis, November imports were down by 28% from the previous month, indicating a possible shift toward more stringent quality controls. The reduction in imports can largely be attributed to increased vigilance by the Ministry of Steel, which has implemented more rigorous quality checks on imported steel. An internal report from the Ministry suggests that these measures are starting to have an effect, with fewer substandard steel products entering the market.
Despite the decline in imports, India remains a net importer of steel for the period from April to November 2024. During these eight months, steel imports totaled 6.5 mt, a 27% year-on-year increase, while exports stood at only 3.2 mt, marking a 24% decrease from the previous year. This imbalance highlights India’s ongoing reliance on imported steel to meet domestic demand. While imports have fallen in recent months, the overall import level still exceeds exports, underlining the challenges India faces in becoming self-sufficient in steel production.
One of the factors contributing to the decline in imports has been the implementation of stricter quality norms. According to the Steel Ministry’s assessment, some traders and manufacturers were attempting to bypass the Bureau of Indian Standard requirements by making minor alterations to steel grades. The Ministry has taken action against such practices, halting shipments that do not meet the established standards. For example, a consignment from Japan was recently stopped due to discrepancies in its compliance with Indian norms. As of October 31, 2024, the Ministry had received 1,136 new applications for steel imports, but a significant portion of these were rejected because they did not conform to the country’s quality standards.
The Indian government has been closely monitoring these issues, as there is growing concern that substandard steel imports could harm the domestic industry. The Steel Ministry’s efforts to enforce quality checks and ensure that only approved steel grades are allowed into the country are seen as steps in the right direction. However, concerns remain that some traders may still attempt to circumvent these standards, which could undermine the progress made in reducing imports and boosting domestic production.
While India’s exports have been sluggish, the country’s domestic steel market has shown resilience. Steel consumption in India during the April-November 2024 period increased by 12.3% year-on-year, reaching 98 mt. This growth in consumption reflects a healthy demand for steel, driven by ongoing infrastructure and construction projects across the country. The production of finished steel also showed a positive trend, rising by 5% year-on-year to 95 mt. This indicates that India’s domestic steel industry is not only meeting internal demand but is also improving its production capacity, despite the challenges in the global export market.
