The 2024 southwest monsoon season in India began with a series of contrasts that painted a complex picture of the country's changing climate. As June came to a close, the nation found itself grappling with a patchwork of weather extremes, ranging from severe droughts to devastating floods. This stark variability in rainfall patterns across different regions has become a hallmark of India's monsoon in recent years, raising concerns among meteorologists, farmers, and policymakers alike.
According to data from the India Meteorological Department, the country as a whole experienced an 11% rainfall deficit in June. This overall shortfall, however, masks the dramatic regional differences that characterized the month. Nearly half of India's districts received deficient or largely deficient rainfall, with some areas experiencing rainfall levels more than 60% below normal. The situation was particularly dire in states like Jharkhand and Bihar, which faced severe deficits of 61% and 52% respectively. In the Northeast, Manipur continued its troubling trend of rainfall scarcity, recording a staggering 62% deficit for the month.
Conversely, some regions experienced rainfall far exceeding normal levels. The cold desert region of Ladakh, typically known for its arid climate, received a whopping 385% excess rainfall. Delhi, the nation's capital, was inundated with 44% more rain than usual, leading to severe flooding that damaged infrastructure and disrupted daily life. In the south, Tamil Nadu experienced an excess of 116%, the second-highest in the country after Ladakh. These extreme variations highlight the increasing unpredictability of the monsoon system, a trend that climate scientists attribute to the ongoing effects of global climate change.
The monsoon's erratic behavior was further exemplified by the rapid transitions some regions experienced between drought-like conditions and flood situations. Gujarat, for instance, ended June with a 30% rainfall deficit, only to face extreme rainfall and flash floods in the early days of July. Similarly, Kerala, typically one of India's most rain-rich states, struggled with a 25% deficit for most of June, with its forested district of Wayanad recording a 38% shortfall. Yet, by the month's end, parts of the state were preparing for potential flooding as rainfall intensity increased.
The progress of the monsoon itself reflected this year's unusual patterns. The IMD reported that the monsoon winds had covered almost the entire Indian landmass by July 1, except for the most northwestern parts. This came after a significant delay in mid-June, particularly in the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon. The onset over Kerala occurred on May 30, two days earlier than the normal date, hastened by the development of Cyclone Remal in late May. Despite the early start, the subsequent stalling led to a 20% rainfall deficit by June 18, from which the country only partially recovered in the last ten days of the month.
These extreme variations in rainfall distribution pose significant challenges across multiple sectors. Farmers, who rely heavily on the predictability of the monsoon for agricultural planning, face increased uncertainty. Water management becomes a complex issue as some regions struggle with scarcity while others deal with excess. Urban areas, particularly those experiencing rapid transitions between dry spells and intense rainfall, face infrastructure stress and increased flood risks. The situation underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies in agriculture, water resource management, and urban planning.
As India navigates these changing weather patterns, the need for enhanced climate resilience becomes increasingly apparent. The June 2024 monsoon behavior serves as a stark reminder of the complex challenges posed by climate change. It highlights the necessity for more robust weather forecasting capabilities, improved water storage and distribution infrastructure, and the development of climate-adaptive agricultural practices. As the monsoon continues to evolve in response to global climate trends, India's ability to adapt and respond to these changes will be crucial in mitigating their impact on its economy, agriculture, and population.
