As the world grapples with the devastating effects of climate change, the historic Paris climate agreement's goal of keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.8 Fahrenheit) compared to preindustrial times seems increasingly out of reach. With temperatures rising and natural disasters intensifying, some countries may turn to climate engineering as a desperate measure to mitigate the impacts of climate change. However, this controversial approach carries serious national security risks that could lead to global conflicts, necessitating careful consideration and preparedness.
Climate engineering, also known as geoengineering or solar climate intervention, involves deliberately altering the climate to counteract the effects of global warming. Proposed methods include mimicking the cooling effects of large volcanic eruptions by injecting reflective particles into the atmosphere or brightening low clouds over the ocean to reflect a small amount of sunlight back into space. While these techniques have the potential to quickly arrest temperature rise, they also raise numerous unanswered questions about the effects of intentionally manipulating the climate.
One of the primary concerns surrounding climate engineering is its potential impact on national security. As climate change threatens food, energy, and water supplies, as well as triggers climate-induced migration, countries may view climate engineering as a means to reduce these risks. However, the unilateral deployment of climate engineering by a single country or coalition of countries could have far-reaching consequences, affecting temperature and rainfall patterns in neighboring nations. This "free driver" problem, where one country's actions can impact the global climate, raises the specter of international conflicts and demands for compensation.
While some studies suggest that a moderate amount of climate engineering could provide widespread benefits compared to unchecked climate change, the effects would not be uniform across all countries. The climate does not respect national borders, and the deployment of climate engineering in one nation could have unintended consequences for its neighbors, potentially exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and inequalities. Countries benefiting from climate engineering may become more resilient to geopolitical strife, while those harmed by it could be left more vulnerable.
The lack of large-scale climate engineering experiments means that much of the information about its effects relies on climate models. While these models are valuable tools for studying the climate system, they are not well-suited for answering questions about geopolitics and conflict. Moreover, the physical effects of climate engineering depend on the specific actions taken and the actors involved, making it challenging to predict the outcomes with certainty.
As the international community grapples with the prospect of climate engineering, important decisions lie ahead. At the United Nations Environment Assembly in March 2024, African countries called for a moratorium on climate engineering, urging all precaution. Other nations, including the United States, pressed for a formal scientific group to study the risks and benefits before making any decisions. While climate engineering could potentially be part of an equitable solution to climate change, it also carries significant risks that must be carefully considered.
To navigate this complex landscape, policymakers need informed decision-making based on rigorous research and analysis. It is crucial to understand the potential consequences of climate engineering, both in terms of its physical effects on the climate and its geopolitical implications. International cooperation and dialogue will be essential to develop a framework for governing climate engineering and addressing the concerns of all nations, particularly those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
As the world faces the mounting challenges of global warming, the prospect of climate engineering cannot be ignored. However, it is imperative that any decisions regarding its deployment are made with a full understanding of the risks and benefits involved. By investing in research, fostering international collaboration, and preparing for the potential consequences, the global community can work towards a more equitable and sustainable future in the face of an uncertain climate.
