At the recent Kallanish Flat Steel 2024 conference in Istanbul, industry experts expressed a predominantly bearish outlook for the global steel market, suggesting recovery is unlikely before the second half of 2025. Tayfun İşeri, chairman of Turkey’s Flat Steel Product Exporters, Importers and Manufacturers Association YİSAD, shared his concerns, noting that despite his usual optimism, he now feels pessimistic about market conditions for the first time. İşeri pointed out the "hectic" nature of the steel industry over the past two years, attributing the turbulent situation to various global factors, including geopolitical conflicts and economic instability.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, recent earthquakes in Turkey, and tensions in Palestine and Israel have significantly affected steel demand, according to İşeri. He also mentioned the impact of high interest rates and inflation on consumer purchasing power, which is further compounded by the expected surge in Chinese steel exports, projected to exceed 100 million metric tons by the end of 2024. This influx poses a significant threat to steel prices and production capacities in 2025, contributing to a fragile market landscape.
Selçuk Yılmaz, the newly appointed general manager of Yıldız Demir Çelik, addressed the implications of Turkey's recent imposition of dumping duties ranging from 6.1% to 43.31% on hot-rolled coil imports from countries like India, China, Japan, and Russia. He noted that these tariffs have already influenced domestic HRC pricing, leading to a more complicated market dynamic. Yılmaz indicated that next year could see an anti-dumping investigation into other steel categories, including galvanizing and cold-rolled products. As operating profits decline amid soaring energy costs, the steel sector is grappling with rising production capacities without a corresponding increase in demand.
Tomas Gutierrez, Kallanish Asia editor, emphasized the anticipated decline in Chinese steel demand in the near future, which is likely to result in increased exports of surplus steel from China. He expressed skepticism regarding the effectiveness of recent stimulus packages aimed at reviving the steel industry, suggesting that a return of economic confidence is essential for demand recovery. Gutierrez's insights underline the fragility of the current market, which remains susceptible to external shocks and a lack of supportive measures.
Dick Sands, managing director of Stemcor, highlighted the adverse effects of high interest rates on the construction sector, contributing to a generally negative sentiment in the market. He noted that sentiment plays a crucial role in driving demand, and without a shift towards more positive outlooks, the market will continue to struggle. Sands also pointed out that while current conflicts are dampening demand, an eventual end to these disputes could lead to a resurgence in steel consumption.
Stanislav Zinchenko, chief executive of GMK Center, projected a modest annual growth rate of 1.4% for the European economy next year, yet he cautioned that European steel demand is unlikely to recover in the next six months. He stated that the market is currently at a low point in the demand cycle, with any significant recovery not expected until 2026-2028. This prolonged stagnation reflects the challenges faced by the industry as it navigates a turbulent global economic environment.
The Indian steel market has also seen stagnation, with exports dropping by 50% in the first nine months of the year. Zinchenko noted that anticipated infrastructure investment projects have not materialized following recent elections, further compounding the challenges for Indian steel producers. He urged Indian authorities to consider protective measures to bolster the local market and address export losses.
