The European Union is considering implementing anti-dumping duties on imports of hot-rolled steel plates from four countries: Japan, Vietnam, Egypt, and India. This move has raised alarms within the Italian steel industry, particularly among steel distributors. According to Assofermet, the Italian steel distributors' association, such duties could lead to significant shortages in the domestic market.
The steel market is currently characterized by stagnant consumption and low prices. Despite these conditions, Paolo Sangoi, president of Assofermet’s distribution segment, warns that a sudden increase in demand could quickly change the landscape. He notes that if consumption improves, the EU’s restrictions on imports could mirror the shortages experienced in 2021 and 2022. In those years, Italy faced severe supply issues, and without sufficient imports, similar problems could arise again.
For the time being, EU steel producers appear willing to negotiate, but the looming possibility of restricted imports is a pressing concern for Italian buyers and service centers.
As of now, a 15% restriction on hot-rolled steel plate imports into the EU has already resulted in 1.6 million metric tons of steel being removed from the market for European buyers. Sangoi indicates that the additional costs incurred by importers due to anti-dumping duties will ultimately be passed on to end users. This situation could adversely affect manufacturers of components and finished steel products, diminishing their competitiveness in international markets.
Assofermet's forecasts suggest that steel consumption will not recover this year, although improvements might be seen in the first quarter of 2025. For any recovery to take place, both producers and buyers need to adjust their pricing strategies across the value chain. However, Sangoi emphasizes that this price increase cannot happen without a concerted effort to reduce production volumes.
In August 2024, the European Commission initiated an anti-dumping investigation into certain hot-rolled steel products made of iron, unalloyed, or other alloys from the four targeted countries. This investigation was prompted by a complaint filed by the European Steel Association on June 24.
The potential impact of these anti-dumping measures could be profound, as they are expected to affect over half of the EU’s hot-rolled coil imports. Data shows that from January to May of this year, the combined imports from Japan, Vietnam, Egypt, and India accounted for approximately 51% of the EU's total hot-rolled coil imports, amounting to nearly 4.3 million metric tons.
