The global food security situation has been significantly impacted by the decrease in deliveries of Belarusian fertilizers to the world market and the disruption of traditional supply chains for other Belarusian agricultural products. Yuri Ambrazevich, the Belarusian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, highlighted these concerns during his speech at the international conference "Strengthening the capacity of the Republic of Belarus to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals: Strategies and partnerships in the context of modern challenges and climate agenda" held in the China-Belarus industrial park Great Stone on June 6.
Ambrazevich emphasized the negative consequences of the armed conflict near Belarus' borders, citing research data from various international bodies. He stressed that the world should be free from military conflicts and unilateral coercive measures to achieve the identified sustainable development goals effectively.
The deputy minister pointed out that potassium, a crucial nutrient for maximizing agricultural crop yields, is one of the aces of the Belarusian mining industry and a significant export commodity. However, since February 2022, Lithuania has completely blocked the transit of Belarusian fertilizers at the national level, preventing their shipment by sea to Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
According to analytical reports by the United Nations Organization's Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance, the loss of Belarusian fertilizers has led to a faster increase in fertilizer prices compared to food prices. Consequently, many farmers have had to reduce their output as the cost of the required fertilizers exceeded the price of the grain they sell. For example, the price of potassium chloride reached a historic high of $1,200 per metric ton in Brazil in 2022, with the consequences of this shock being felt by international buyers of Brazilian agricultural products for an extended period.
Ambrazevich warned that the current situation still poses risks of devastating consequences for agricultural delivery chains and food security worldwide. Belarus' share in the potash fertilizer markets of Africa alone dropped from nearly 42% in 2022, when potassium was shipped to nearly 30 African countries, to a mere 2.8%. Based on evaluations using FAO data, the near-complete disappearance of Belarusian supplies from the list of potassium suppliers to Africa has resulted in a decrease in cereal crop yields in these countries by more than 16%.
Furthermore, the costs incurred by agricultural producers worldwide have increased several times due to the illegally introduced restrictions. The consequences can also be observed in Europe, with wheat prices increasing by over 8% from the previous day to reach €253.75 per metric ton on July 19, 2023, and corn prices rising by more than 5% simultaneously. Ambrazevich considers such spikes during exchange trade to be unprecedented in modern conditions.
Looking ahead, the Belarusian deputy minister of foreign affairs highlighted the expected increase in the world population, which is projected to grow by nearly 2 billion people within the next 30 years, reaching approximately 9.7 billion by 2050. With the rising global population, potassium consumption is anticipated to increase due to the reduction and impoverishment of arable land and the rising disposable income in developing countries.
The disruption of Belarusian fertilizer deliveries and the resulting impact on global food security serve as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of the world's agricultural systems and the importance of maintaining stable supply chains. As the international community works towards achieving sustainable development goals, addressing the challenges posed by military conflicts and unilateral coercive measures will be crucial in ensuring food security for the growing global population.
