Steel consumption in Thailand is projected to increase by 3% in 2025, driven by economic stimulus measures from the Thai government and the continued growth of the Chinese economy, according to the Federation of Thai Industries' Steel Industry Club.
2024 Steel Consumption Levels and Forecast for 2025
In 2024, steel consumption in Thailand was estimated at 15 to 16 million metric tons, a figure that closely mirrors the levels observed in 2023. The FTI anticipates a positive outlook for the steel market in 2025, particularly after several years marked by a decline in demand, falling steel prices, and competition from cheaper Chinese imports. Nava Chantanasurakon, the chairman of the FTI Steel Industry Club, expressed optimism that government economic measures would contribute to GDP growth, thereby increasing demand for steel.
Government Measures and Market Recovery
The Thai government’s stimulus measures are expected to revive sectors that use steel as a raw material, particularly the construction industry. This sector, which faced significant challenges in the past year, is now seeing a recovery in demand for steel products. Industry experts are hopeful that the revival of the construction sector, along with the government’s focus on boosting economic growth, will lead to a steady increase in steel consumption.
Chinese Economy and Steel Exports
The growth of China’s economy plays a significant role in shaping steel demand both domestically and internationally. The Chinese government reported a 5% growth in GDP in 2024, totaling US$18.8 trillion. This growth is attributed to various fiscal measures, including the allocation of 10 trillion yuan to manage local government debt risks. As China’s steel demand grows, the FTI predicts that Chinese steel exports to Thailand will decline in 2025, as more steel will be consumed domestically within China.
In 2024, Thailand saw a rise in Chinese steel imports, with shipments increasing by 7% compared to the previous year. This influx of steel from China contributed to a 2% reduction in steel production within Thailand. The increase in imports came from both direct exports and those re-exported from neighboring countries. This has caused concern among Thai manufacturers, particularly with the continued competitiveness of lower-priced Chinese steel products.
China’s Global Steel Exports
Globally, China exported approximately 105 million metric tons of steel in 2024. This significant volume followed a relaxation of the country's steel output cuts, which were initially introduced to address issues of oversupply and pollution in the steelmaking process. The FTI expressed concern about the continued inflow of inexpensive Chinese steel into the Thai market and urged the government to take action.
Calls for Government Action
In light of the growing concerns over Chinese steel imports, the FTI has requested the Thai government to strengthen its efforts in protecting local manufacturers. The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking has called for enforcement of the 1999 Anti-Dumping Act and the 2007 Safeguard Measures on Increased Imports Act. These laws are aimed at preventing unfair trade practices such as dumping low-cost steel into the Thai market.
The steel industry in Thailand faces both opportunities and challenges as the market anticipates a modest recovery in 2025. With government intervention, the sector hopes to see steady growth, although the competition from Chinese imports remains a critical issue.
