The European Parliament elections have brought about a significant change in the political landscape of the European Union. According to the prevailing narrative, the "far right" has made notable gains against the "pro-European centre," although these gains may not be sufficient to disrupt the equilibrium of the Parliament or derail Ursula von der Leyen's bid for reappointment as European Commission President. However, a closer analysis reveals nuances that go beyond the simplistic labeling of opposition parties as "extreme right."
While it might be politically expedient to demonize the opposition, it is crucial to recognize the differences between various parties and their positions. For instance, there is a significant distinction between the German AfD opposition and Georgia Meloni's government in Italy. Moreover, in Hungary, Victor Orban's party, often described as "far right," has actually been among the losers in the recent elections.
The election results suggest a revolt against incumbents at both national and European levels. Where the electoral system favors centrist coalitions, this protest vote benefits what might be more accurately described as "anti-system" parties. Interestingly, these parties seem to have garnered considerable support among the younger demographic. When the "anti-system" parties focus on issues such as the costs of migration and climate policies, it is tempting to attribute their success to the "evil genius" of the far right rather than acknowledging the shortcomings of the centrist parties.
In the UK, current polls indicate a similar anti-incumbent sentiment, with the Labour Party expected to be the main beneficiary in the upcoming General Election. During the campaign, Labour has been cautious not to question the fundamentals of the Brexit settlement while expressing a desire to work more closely with the EU in areas such as security and trade. Senior Labour figures have maintained close ties with European leaders throughout the past years.
However, it is important to note that while Labour may be contemplating ways to improve Britain's relationship with Brussels, the EU has its own challenges to address. Many member states, particularly Germany, are grappling with severe economic pressures. There are also significant divisions within the EU regarding policy towards Ukraine, enlargement, and China. The EU's centrist leaders will likely remain skeptical about the UK's commitment to renouncing Euroscepticism and will be hesitant to offer concessions that could excite demands from their own members.
The success of nationalist parties across Europe does not necessarily translate into increased cooperation with the UK on issues such as migration. If the current UK government has struggled to achieve results through cooperation with Macron, its successor may find it equally challenging to work with the RN in France. Some might hope for an unintended benefit for the UK if the EU were to face pressure from its right wing to reimpose internal border controls within the Schengen area. However, this could be wishful thinking, as different countries may have conflicting interests in this regard.
The shift towards the right in the EU might help expand the range of acceptable policies within the Labour Party, potentially enabling a Labour government to take strong action on issues such as migration. However, the extent to which this plays out will depend on the size and composition of a Labour majority as much as the situation in Europe.
If the political dynamic continues to move rightward, as seen in the upcoming French legislative elections, an incoming Labour government in the UK may find itself with fewer allies for pursuing its preferred policies on issues like Ukraine and climate change. In such a scenario, a Labour-led UK might find it easier to collaborate with the United States on these matters, provided that Biden secures a victory in the November elections. However, if Trump returns to the White House, a Labour government could find itself swimming against the tide of Western policy in key areas.
