A year has passed since the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched a short-lived mutiny against the Russian government, shocking the world and briefly threatening President Vladimir Putin's authority. In the aftermath of this unprecedented event and Prigozhin's subsequent death in a plane crash, the once-powerful mercenary organization has undergone a significant transformation, effectively being dismantled and replaced by the Kremlin.
The Wagner Group, which at its peak boasted around 50,000 mercenaries in Ukraine according to the US National Security Council, had been a valuable tool for Russian operations across Africa and Syria. In Ukraine, Wagner forces played a crucial role in some of Russia's few battlefield victories, including the capture of Soledar and the prolonged battle for Bakhmut. However, experts now suggest that the group's operations in Ukraine have been largely absorbed by other Russian state and paramilitary units.
Dr. Sorcha MacLeod, a member of the UN's working group on mercenaries and lecturer at the University of Copenhagen, explains that while Wagner may not exist in its previous form, versions of it continue to operate under different control structures. "There's been this sort of dispersal amongst the Russian state so there is no one overall controller," she told the BBC. This fragmentation has allowed the Kremlin to maintain the geopolitical and economic benefits that Wagner once provided while exerting greater control over its remnants.
One of the primary beneficiaries of Wagner's dissolution appears to be the Rosgvardia, or National Guard, often described as Putin's "private army." UK intelligence officials have reported that some of Wagner's infantry units have been integrated into the National Guard since October 2023. These ex-Wagner troops, now referred to as "volunteer formations," are being deployed to Ukraine on six-month contracts and to Africa on nine-month contracts. This integration was seemingly confirmed by Anton Yelizarov, a long-term Wagner operator, who announced the construction of a camp where Wagner troops would "work for the good of Russia" alongside National Guard units.
In Africa, where Wagner once wielded significant influence, a new entity known as the Africa Corps has emerged to fill the void. Commanded by former GRU Gen Andrey Averyanov, this "expeditionary group" is offering a "regime survival package" to African nations in exchange for access to strategic natural resources – a strategy previously employed by Wagner. The Africa Corps has already deployed troops to Burkina Faso and Niger, effectively replacing Wagner's presence in West Africa. Ruslan Trad, a security analyst with the Atlantic Council, notes that the Africa Corps is now serving the full purposes of Russian military intelligence and the Ministry of Defence.
Interestingly, the Central African Republic appears to be the only location where Wagner still operates in a form resembling its former structure. BBC Russian reports that Prigozhin's son Pavel is allegedly controlling these operations, with Moscow's tacit approval. However, experts suggest that the CAR's importance in Russia's strategic thinking may be diminishing, and the deeply entrenched nature of Wagner's presence there makes it more challenging to replace with the newly developing Africa Corps.
The anniversary of Wagner's mutiny passed largely without incident in Russia, reflecting the group's diminished significance in the public eye. Dan Storyev of the OVD-Info monitoring group told the BBC that Prigozhin's legacy primarily resonates with those aligned with the Kremlin, rather than inspiring grassroots support or anti-war sentiment. This muted response underscores the effectiveness of the Kremlin's efforts to dismantle and repurpose the once-formidable mercenary organization, ensuring that its valuable assets and operations continue to serve Russian interests under tighter state control.
