As NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary, the alliance faces emerging challenges that demand a transformative approach to warfare. In response to Russia's growing military capabilities and coercive tactics, NATO must pivot toward integrating unmanned systems into legacy combat formations. This strategic shift, underpinned by technological advancements and changing social dynamics, is vital for preparing NATO member states for future confrontations, particularly along the Baltic frontiers and the northern expanses.
The Russian military's expansion, despite its tribulations in eastern Ukraine, underscores the urgency for NATO to fortify its defenses. Senior German general officers have projected that Moscow could potentially mount an attack on NATO territories within five years. General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, has emphasized the need for enduring preparedness against Russian aggression. This necessitates a multifaceted strategy, encompassing demographic adjustments and an embrace of drone technology, which has proven its efficacy in Ukraine.
Historically, the evolution of military power has been intrinsically linked to broader socio-political currents. Technological innovations and evolving combat tactics have consistently reshaped armies and, by extension, states. As posited by Charles Tilly, the symbiotic relationship between war and state-building underscores the significance of mobilizing resources in response to external threats. Today, NATO’s imperative to raise new armies is compounded by challenges such as hollow forces, demographic shifts, and changing attitudes toward military service.
The post-Cold War era witnessed a reduction in defense budgets and the cessation of conscription across Europe. This "peace dividend" led to a significant downsizing of military forces. For instance, Germany's armed forces dwindled from 1 million personnel in 1996 to just 400,000 today. Despite recent increases in defense spending triggered by the Ukraine conflict, many European countries still grapple with limited stockpiles and reduced combat readiness. The aging population, with over 20% of Europeans now over 65, exacerbates the strain on social safety nets and complicates efforts to expand military ranks.
Confronted with these demographic realities, NATO member states must explore innovative pathways to bolster their armed forces. One potential solution lies in offering migrants a pathway to citizenship through military service, akin to existing programs in France and the United States. However, legislative efforts to open the German military to foreign nationals have faced significant hurdles.
Moreover, shifting attitudes toward military service further complicate recruitment efforts. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics aptly noted the dichotomy faced by modern societies: the aversion to both military service and invasion. This sentiment is echoed across Australia, the United States, and beyond, creating a recruitment crisis that NATO must address to ensure adequate force levels.
Amidst these challenges, the drone revolution in Ukraine offers a promising paradigm. Ukraine's innovative use of first-person-view drones, produced at a rate of 3,000 per day, has demonstrated the potential of unmanned systems in modern warfare. By denying the Black Sea to Russian forces and leveraging drones for strategic strikes, Ukraine exemplifies the efficacy of capital-labor substitution in defense operations.
NATO can accelerate the integration of drone armies by adopting a tripartite approach. First, establishing experimental test beds and conducting campaign analyses can facilitate the development of new battle group designs. Collaborations with startups and major defense firms, such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, can drive innovation in drone technology and tactical applications.
Second, expanding NATO's Standardization Agreement standards to include modular open systems architectures will enhance interoperability. Embracing open-source frameworks for compute-intensive tasks, such as sensor fusion and AI-enabled analysis, will enable dynamic organization of unmanned forces.
Third, developing new concepts of operations for drone armies will be crucial. NATO must invigorate concept development and link it to practical experimentation. Imagining scenarios where unmanned aircraft provide targeting support for air-launched effects, swarming alongside loitering munitions, will guide the creation of effective drone-based strategies.
By leveraging the advantages of drones, NATO can surmount barriers to military expansion. Drones, unlike human soldiers, do not require pensions or disability support, and their operational costs are substantially lower. When paired with trained operators and mechanics, drone armies can extend NATO's reach and combat power without inciting social backlash. This approach, rooted in a culture of experimentation and innovation, holds the potential to catalyze a new military revolution, ensuring peace and stability in Europe.
