Contrary to the grim "urban doom loop" scenario, freshly unveiled census statistics paint a more optimistic picture for America's big cities. The data reveals that the majority of U.S. cities with populations exceeding 250,000 are now performing significantly better in terms of demographics than they were during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021.
In the past two years, a decreasing number of these 91 large U.S. cities have experienced population declines, marking a notable improvement from the 2020-2021 period when over half of them, 56, saw their populations dwindle. The most recent census figures for 2022-2023 show that two-thirds of these cities demonstrated demographic progress, either through increased population gains, reduced losses, or a reversal from losses to gains. Among the cities that turned the tide in 2022-2023 were San Francisco, Boston, Minneapolis, and Detroit.
This urban renaissance extends to the metropolitan level as well. In most major metropolitan areas, both the primary cities and their surrounding suburbs saw growth rates rise over the past year. Remarkably, in several of these metro areas, such as Washington D.C. and Atlanta, the growth of the central cities now outpaces that of the suburbs.
The resurgence of big cities is particularly evident among the nation's very largest urban centers. Seven out of the nine cities with populations of at least 1 million, and 27 out of the 29 cities with populations between 500,000 and 1 million, showed demographic improvements in 2022-2023 compared to the pandemic nadir of 2020-2021. Cities like Boston, Denver, Detroit, Washington D.C., and Atlanta flipped from population losses to gains, while others such as San Antonio and Charlotte posted even larger gains.
While domestic migration patterns likely played a significant role in these post-pandemic demographic shifts, the recent period also saw an uptick in international immigration and natural population increases (more births and fewer deaths) compared to the peak pandemic year. Cities like New York and San Francisco exemplify how reduced domestic out-migration, coupled with increased foreign immigration, contributed to their population rebound.
Despite the widespread impact of the pandemic, southern U.S. cities continued to grow at a faster clip than those in other regions, and even accelerated their growth in 2022-2023. Thirteen of the fifteen fastest-growing large cities are located in the South, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Fort Worth, Jacksonville, Orlando, Raleigh, and San Antonio. However, some southern outliers like New Orleans, Memphis, and Baltimore experienced less robust growth.
The demographic performance of western cities was more mixed. While cities such as Henderson, Nevada; Phoenix; and Seattle ranked among the top dozen in numeric gains, several Californian cities like Anaheim, Long Beach, Los Angeles, and San Jose posted some of the most substantial population losses.
As America's big cities navigate the post-pandemic landscape, many unanswered questions remain about the future drivers of urban growth. Factors such as the evolution of remote work, the resurgence of urban-centered jobs in a high-tech economy, the impact of new immigrant waves, and the preferences of younger generations like Gen Z will all play a role in shaping the trajectory of cities in the years to come. While the latest census data offers reason for cautious optimism, it also underscores the need for continued monitoring and adaptability as cities confront the uncertainties that lie ahead.
