In the world of boondoggles, two recent ventures have taken center stage: atmospheric carbon dioxide extraction machines in Iceland and asteroid mining companies. According to author Dmitri Orlov, known for his book "Reinventing Collapse," these projects epitomize the concept of a boondoggle, which he defines as not only wasteful but also creating additional problems that necessitate further boondoggles to address.
The atmospheric carbon dioxide extraction plant in Iceland, while seemingly a step towards combating climate change, may actually exacerbate the issue. Orlov suggests that making the technology modular and mandatory for businesses emitting carbon dioxide directly into the air could be a solution. However, this proposal violates the first rule of boondoggles: they must not solve the problem they were intended to address. In fact, using this technology in areas without sufficient non-carbon energy sources would lead to increased fossil fuel consumption to power the extractors, creating a perfect circle of emissions.
Despite arguments that the world will soon develop vast new sources of carbon-free energy, the reality paints a different picture. As of 2021, after decades of renewable energy deployment, solar and wind energy account for less than 2% and 3% of the world's total energy, respectively, according to Our World in Data and the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Hydroelectric power contributes just over 6%, but most of the best sites have already been taken, and the energy generated is already committed. Fossil fuel use, particularly coal and natural gas, continues to grow, with renewable energy adding to world energy capacity but not replacing existing fossil fuel use on a net basis.
Asteroid mining ventures, on the other hand, may be an even better boondoggle than atmospheric carbon dioxide extractors. These ventures burn money without producing tangible results, a characteristic that Orlov considers indicative of a pure boondoggle. Promoters entice investors excited about science fiction stories to invest in the idea of mining asteroids that might be "pure metal" or close to it, despite the lack of certainty about their composition.
The economics of asteroid mining are daunting, with transport distances spanning billions of miles and costs reaching billions of dollars just to send a small craft to orbit an asteroid. Mining equipment would be significantly more massive, and the extracted ore would need to be transported back to Earth regularly under near-zero gravity conditions. Even if vast amounts of ore were successfully mined and brought to Earth, the influx of supply could cause mineral prices to plummet, undermining the profitability of the venture.
Proponents of asteroid mining argue that the mined metals will be used by space colonists rather than consumed on Earth, making it an even better boondoggle in Orlov's view. The idea of asteroid mining appeals to investors who may not fully understand the complexities and challenges involved, making it an ideal vehicle for burning money with little hope of return, at least within a timeframe that matters to investors.
While there are numerous other boondoggles to explore, Orlov's purpose is to provide general tools for identifying them and responding accordingly. Whether one chooses to participate in the fun or steer clear of these ventures, it is essential to recognize the characteristics of a boondoggle and the potential consequences they may have on society and the economy.
