Trump Administration Doubles Down onProtectionist Steel Policies
The global steel industry faces unprecedented challenges astrade barriers continue to rise, according to experts speaking at the recentIREPAS meeting in Athens. Matthew Nolan, counsel at ArentFox Schiff LLP,outlined how the Trump administration has significantly intensifiedprotectionist measures, lifting exemptions from Section 232 tariffs and nearlydoubling duty rates. While the administration announced sweeping reciprocaltariffs, most have been postponed, with only a universal 10% duty currently implemented.
"I believe we will see the US signing agreements withsome countries, leading to much lower levels on tariffs," Nolan predicted,suggesting the administration's aggressive stance may soften through bilateralnegotiations. He expressed particular concern about the impact of tariffs onChinese products, warning they could lead to inventory shortages for UScompanies and potentially become "the downfall of the US economy."
Non-Tariff Barriers Add Complexity to SteelTrade
Beyond direct tariffs, Nolan highlighted how non-tariffbarriers are creating additional hurdles for steel exporters. The 'melted andpoured' rule in the US, which restricts steel imports based on their country oforigin for raw material processing, has become a significant obstacle.Similarly, restrictions on Russian material have further complicated thetrading landscape. Despite these challenges, Nolan advised exporters to remainpatient, expressing confidence that "the current extreme volatility willnot last forever" and that the US will eventually need to adopt moresustainable trade measures.
EU Trade Policy Evolves Amid MarketFragmentation
Nikolay Mizulin, partner and co-leader of InternationalTrade at Mayer Brown, offered insights into the European perspective, notingthat "trade barriers reflect steel markets are increasingly becomingfragmented." While the EU has postponed countermeasures against US tariffsas negotiations continue, Mizulin was pessimistic about the prospects for anagreement.
The real concern, according to Mizulin, isn't the lack ofUS-EU agreement but rather the diversion of steel from the US to Europeanmarkets. With current EU safeguard measures set to expire in June 2026, theEuropean Commission is developing a new, more aggressive protectionist tool toaddress global overcapacity concerns. The EU has also implemented its own'melted and poured' rule, further restricting market access. Additionally,Mizulin emphasized that the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will significantlyimpact future EU trade flows, adding another layer of complexity to an alreadychallenging environment.
European Commission Adopts More AggressiveTrade Defense Stance
Bülent Hacıoğlu, managing partner at Trade ResourcesCompany, painted a bleak picture for exporters to the EU, warning they"will not have a break from tariffs" due to planned protectionistmeasures. He highlighted a significant shift in the European Commission'sapproach to trade defense, noting they will "no longer wait for actualmaterial injury to occur to implement investigations."
This proactive stance is accompanied by changes toanti-dumping methodologies that will result in "much higher dumpingmargins," as zeroing and lesser duty rules no longer apply in the EU.These technical changes may seem obscure but will have profound implicationsfor exporters facing trade defense investigations.
US Customs Enforcement Intensifies UnderBipartisan Consensus
Looking at US developments, Hacıoğlu observed a rare pointof bipartisan agreement between the Trump and Biden administrations:strengthened Customs and Border Protection. The current US government isprioritizing effective collection of all imposed tariffs and duties, signalingrigorous enforcement of trade measures.
Hacıoğlu concluded with a sobering statistic: currently,two-thirds of all nations worldwide conduct more trade with China than with theUnited States. This shifting economic reality presents a strategic challengefor US policymakers, who "need to figure out another way not to experiencea recession" as global trade patterns continue to evolve.
Global Steel Trade Navigates Uncertain Future
The panel discussion revealed a steel industry at acrossroads, caught between escalating protectionism and the need forsustainable trade policies. While experts differed on specific outcomes, allagreed that the current environment of extreme volatility and fragmentationpresents unprecedented challenges for steel producers, traders, and consumersworldwide.
As the June 2026 expiration of EU safeguard measuresapproaches and the US continues to reshape its trade policy, industryparticipants must prepare for continued uncertainty while advocating for morepredictable and balanced trade frameworks. The experts' consensus suggests thatwhile short-term turbulence is inevitable, market forces will eventuallynecessitate more sustainable approaches to steel trade policy.
Key Takeaways:
* The Trump administration has intensified protectionistmeasures by lifting Section 232 tariff exemptions and nearly doubling dutyrates, though full implementation of reciprocal tariffs remains unlikely.
* The EU is developing new, more aggressive trade defensetools to replace current safeguard measures expiring in June 2026, withinvestigations no longer requiring proof of material injury.
* Two-thirds of nations worldwide now conduct more tradewith China than with the US, creating strategic challenges for US economicpolicy and increasing pressure for new approaches.
