In a significant shift in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine has begun launching strikes on Russian soil using weapons provided by Western allies. The lifting of restrictions by France, Germany, and the United States has opened up new possibilities for Ukraine's defense strategy, allowing them to target Russian positions and infrastructure beyond the immediate conflict zone.
On May 26 and 27, France and Germany announced that they would permit Ukraine to use their weapons against targets on Russian territory, following Russia's new offensive against Kharkiv on May 10. The US followed suit, allowing Ukraine to use its weapons for "counter-fire purposes" in the Kharkiv region. However, the US has maintained ambiguity regarding the extent of these permissions, potentially missing an opportunity to deter Russian preparations for offensive operations elsewhere along the border.
Ukraine's first declared strike on Russian soil using Western weapons took place on Friday, targeting the Kerch ferry crossing with US Army Tactical Missile Systems. The strike, which Ukraine claimed significantly damaged two ferries and disrupted military logistics, appeared to be based on a misunderstanding of the US restrictions. The US has stated that it does not allow Ukraine to use its 300km-range ATACMS in Russia, only on occupied territories such as Crimea.
Over the weekend, Ukraine conducted another strike on Russian soil using a US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System Belgorod. Geolocated footage showed two destroyed launchers and a damaged command post, indicating the effectiveness of the strike.
As the topic of geographic restrictions gained attention, Ukraine's allies began to clarify their stances on the use of F-16 fighter jets, which they are set to deliver to Ukraine this summer. Denmark and the Netherlands have stated that there will be no restrictions on using their F-16s to strike targets inside Russia once they are handed over to Ukraine. In contrast, Belgium has maintained that Ukraine may not use Belgian F-16s or other weapons to target Russia, highlighting the differing positions among Ukraine's allies.
On the ground, Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskii, announced the deployment of reinforcements to the Kharkiv front. However, he acknowledged that these forces might not be sufficient to provide a full-scale assault and breakthrough in Ukraine's defense. Ukraine has long faced a significant artillery disadvantage against Russia, with estimates ranging from 10:1 in some places. Despite this, Ukraine has reported downing a substantial number of Russian first-person view drones in recent weeks, potentially offsetting some of Russia's advantages.
