The aviation industry is facing a growing challenge as climate change leads to more frequent and severe turbulence. The recent incident involving Singapore Airlines Flight SQ321 highlights the potential dangers posed by turbulence, which can cause life-changing injuries for passengers and significant costs for airlines.
There are two main types of severe turbulence: turbulence caused by thunderstorms and "clear air turbulence." As the planet warms, thunderstorms are becoming more intense, leading to changes in wind strength and air flow that can create turbulence thousands of miles away. Fortunately, this type of turbulence can generally be identified by weather radar, allowing pilots to avoid it.
Clear air turbulence, on the other hand, is harder to detect as it doesn't show up on weather radar systems. This type of turbulence usually occurs at altitudes of 20,000 to 49,000 feet and is caused by wind velocity gradients around the jet stream. Research has shown a significant increase in severe clear air turbulence over the North Atlantic, with a 55% increase between 1979 and 2020.
The impact of increased turbulence on the aviation industry is significant. Airlines incur wear-and-tear costs of between $150 million and $500 million annually due to turbulence, and these costs are expected to rise as turbulence becomes more common. Environmental costs are also a concern, as pilots burn more fuel to avoid turbulence, leading to higher carbon emissions and further damage to the environment.
To address these challenges, airlines are exploring new technologies and strategies. Fifteen airlines, including easyJet and Qatar Airways, are trialing a system that aims to chart "clear air" turbulence in real-time and integrate this information into cockpit displays, making it easier for pilots to avoid. The aviation industry is also increasing efforts to develop sustainable fuel to mitigate the environmental impact of airline travel and reduce the impact of increased fuel burn due to turbulence.
For passengers, increased severity of turbulence means a greater risk of injury and trauma. If injured following severe turbulence, passengers are entitled to compensation under the Montreal Convention. However, airlines can limit their liability to £135,000 if they can prove they did nothing wrong, which can be a battleground for lawyers in cases where aircraft encounter unexpected clear air turbulence.
Increased claims lead to higher insurance premiums for airlines, which inevitably pass to passengers as increased fares. Even without any claims, more turbulent skies mean more fuel burn and greater operating costs, which also translate to higher fares for passengers.
While wearing a seatbelt when not moving around the cabin is prudent advice, passengers on long flights need to move to avoid issues like deep vein thrombosis. The aviation industry must continue to explore new technologies and strategies to address the growing challenge of turbulence, including better detection systems and sustainable aviation fuel. In the meantime, passengers can expect longer flight times and higher fares as the industry adapts to the impact of climate change on air travel.
